Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
